This is a ChatGPT-free Zone
So, like many of you, I watched the BRK annual meeting (replay) as usual. It was nice to have Ajit and Greg join Buffett and Munger on the stage. Buffett and Munger both looked great, and it was good to see that duo in action again. There were a few interesting things this time. This…
Yes, it’s a tsunami. Tsunami of liquidity. A fiscal tsunami. Both at the same time. People seem baffled at the strength of the stock market; they keep saying the market is ‘divorced from economic reality’ and things like that. Others say this is a big bubble waiting to implode. I don’t mean to argue that…
It’s been quite a few weeks since my last post. I haven’t really changed my thoughts since then, but maybe the economic impact of this will have more than a blip on the long term charts after all. So far, the economy seems to be doing much worse (or will soon) than the stock market….
So, the market has gone crazy. People ask me about the market and the impact of the COVID-19 and I keep saying it doesn’t matter. But with the market acting like this, it’s hard for people to agree with me. The markets make the news, the market creates the sentiment etc. and I can’t fight…
People keep talking about how crazy the market is, up more than 25% this year. It’s a big year to be sure. But on the the other hand, even though the market has been decent in recent years, it hasn’t been particularly bubblicious. To put the 25% return into context, I think it’s a good…
Bubblicious? People still speak of bubbles a lot, bubble in the bond market, stock market, unicorns etc. But I still don’t really see a bubble except in certain areas of technology. Otherwise, things seem to be in a normal range to me, except interest rates. They do seem a bit low, but having said that,…
So, Buffett’s response (at the 2015 annual meeting) to questions regarding the valuation of the stock market was interesting. He used to just say it’s in a “zone of reasonableness”, but this time said that if interest rates stay at current low levels, the stock market is cheap, and if interest rates normalize, it is…
For the record, I do agree with Stanley Druckenmiller who said the other day on Bloomberg TV (or CNBC) that the Fed blew it by not tapering. It was in the market already that they would so it was a freebie. But anyway, the market has been obsessed with tapering lately. The Fed is buying $85…
So the market has come up quite a bit since last fall when I made a bunch of posts showing that the market was reasonably valued and there was too much pessimism. I think the market still looks and feels fine. There are people who say it’s getting bubbly and bullish consensus is too high,…